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Big Oil Doubles Down as Prices Falter | Analysis by Brian Moineau

Posted on by Brian Moineau

A surprising act of confidence: Why Exxon and Chevron kept pumping in Q3

The image of major oil companies throttling back while prices sag feels intuitive — yet in Q3 2025 Exxon Mobil and Chevron did the opposite. Both U.S. giants raised oil-equivalent production even as analysts and agencies warned of a growing global supply surplus and softening oil prices. That choice matters for markets, investors and the energy transition — and it tells us something about how the biggest producers think about the future.

Key takeaways

  • Exxon and Chevron increased third-quarter 2025 output, setting new records in several regions.
  • Their production growth is driven by recent project start-ups, acquisitions (Chevron/Hess) and Permian and Guyana expansions (Exxon).
  • The increases come amid IEA and bank forecasts of a potential supply glut and downward pressure on prices.
  • The companies appear to be prioritizing volume, cash generation and project execution over short-term price signaling.
  • That strategy reduces per-barrel breakevens through scale and cost discipline, but it also risks amplifying a market surplus if too many producers do the same.

The scene: more barrels while the price outlook cools

In Q3 2025 Exxon reported oil-equivalent production of roughly 4.8 million boe/d, reflecting record Permian and Guyana volumes and recent project start‑ups (Yellowtail among them). Chevron posted production north of 4.0 million boe/d, helped materially by the Hess acquisition and ramp-ups across its portfolio. Both companies beat many expectations for operational delivery even as headline crude prices slid from earlier 2024–2025 highs. (corporate.exxonmobil.com)

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency and several major banks warned that global supply is outpacing demand growth — a dynamic that could leave the market with a multi-million-barrel-per-day surplus into 2026 and keep downward pressure on benchmarks like Brent and WTI. Those forecasts, plus OPEC+ output decisions and slowing demand growth projections, have shaped a decidedly more bearish short‑term outlook for oil. (reuters.com)

Why keep the taps wide open?

Several practical and strategic reasons explain the behavior.

  • Project momentum and economics

    • Large investments and recently started projects (Exxon’s Guyana developments, Chevron’s post-Hess additions) are optimized to run. Once capital is committed, incremental unit costs fall as production scales — so maximizing throughput preserves investment economics and cash flow. (corporate.exxonmobil.com)

  • Cash generation and shareholder returns

    • Even at lower prices, higher volumes translate to meaningful cash flow. Both companies have continued to prioritize returning capital via dividends and buybacks; maintaining or growing production supports that. (investing.com)

  • Competitive and strategic positioning

    • Winning in long-cycle growth areas (Guyana, Permian) cements competitive advantages. Producing now also preserves market share and prevents leaving value on the table that competitors might capture.

  • Operational discipline lowers risk

    • Both firms emphasize cost control and higher-margin barrels (low breakeven wells, advantaged crude streams). Their messaging suggests confidence that many of their new barrels remain profitable even with softer benchmark prices. (corporate.exxonmobil.com)

The market tension: short-term glut vs. long-term demand view

From the IEA’s perspective, 2025–2026 could see several million barrels per day of surplus, driven by faster supply growth (OPEC+ easing cuts and higher non-OPEC output) and modest demand expansion. That’s a recipe for weaker prices near term. Yet Exxon and Chevron publicly lean on a longer-term view: resilient oil demand through the mid- to long-term and value tied to low-cost growth projects. The result is a strategic push to convert investments into volumes and cash today rather than mothballing assets in hopes of higher future prices. (reuters.com)

What investors and policymakers should watch

  • Price sensitivity: If more majors chase volume, the supply/demand imbalance could deepen, pressuring prices and testing the majors’ margin assumptions.
  • Capex discipline: Watch whether future spending remains disciplined or ramps further — more capex means more future supply.
  • OPEC+ moves: Any shift in OPEC+ policy (reinstating cuts or holding production steady) would quickly change the short-term equation.
  • Balance sheets and returns: Continued strong cash flow supports buybacks/dividends, but sustained low prices would force re‑prioritization.
  • Transition signalling: How these firms balance hydrocarbons growth with decarbonization investments will shape their political and social license to operate.

A short reflection

Watching Exxon and Chevron push production higher even with a bearish short-term outlook is a reminder that big oil plays a long game. Their choices reflect a mix of sunk-cost economics, shareholder obligations and confidence in portfolio quality. For markets, that can mean more price volatility in the near term; for the energy transition, it highlights a stubborn supply-side inertia that renewables and efficiency must outpace to shift demand-supply fundamentals.

Sources



Related update: We recently published an article that expands on this topic: read the latest post.

Fearless Forecasters: Our picks for Auburn at Oklahoma – 247Sports | Analysis by Brian Moineau

Posted on by Brian Moineau

Fearless Forecasters: Our picks for Auburn at Oklahoma - 247Sports | Analysis by Brian Moineau

Auburn at Oklahoma: A Clash of Titans with a Historical Twist


As the Auburn Tigers prepare to face the Oklahoma Sooners, the stakes are high, and the anticipation is palpable. This isn't just any game; it's an opportunity for Auburn to secure its first top-15 road win since 2014. The Tigers, known for their resilience and tenacity, are set to roar into SEC play with ambitions of making a statement.

A Trip Down Memory Lane


The last time Auburn clinched a top-15 road victory was nearly a decade ago, a feat that still echoes in the halls of the Auburn faithful. The Tigers' 2014 team was a formidable force, with players like Nick Marshall and Sammie Coates leading the charge. That season was a rollercoaster ride of emotions, embodying the unpredictability and excitement that college football is renowned for.

Fast forward to now, and the Tigers are once again on the prowl for a significant road triumph. Head coach Hugh Freeze, who took the helm at Auburn in 2023, has been instrumental in rejuvenating the team's spirit. Known for his offensive ingenuity and charismatic leadership, Freeze has injected a new sense of purpose and optimism into the program. His previous successes at Ole Miss, including two victories over Alabama, make him a seasoned strategist in navigating the SEC's treacherous waters.

The Opponents: Oklahoma Sooners


Standing in Auburn's path are the Oklahoma Sooners, a team with a storied legacy and a passionate fan base. Led by head coach Brent Venables, the Sooners have been a dominant force in the Big 12, consistently challenging for championships. Venables, a defensive mastermind, has been pivotal in fortifying Oklahoma's defense, making the Sooners a well-rounded adversary.

Oklahoma's offense, traditionally high-octane and explosive, is spearheaded by a talented quarterback who has been making waves this season. The Sooners' dynamic playstyle promises to test Auburn's defense, setting the stage for an exhilarating matchup.

Beyond the Game: A Broader Perspective


This showdown between Auburn and Oklahoma is more than just a football game; it's a reflection of the competitive spirit that defines collegiate sports. In a world where unpredictability has become the norm—be it in global politics, economics, or even climate-related challenges—sports offer a semblance of continuity and excitement. They remind us of the thrill of competition and the pursuit of excellence.

Interestingly, this game resonates with another significant event—the Ryder Cup, where Team USA and Team Europe recently battled for golfing supremacy. Much like the Ryder Cup, the Auburn-Oklahoma clash brings together immense talent, strategic acumen, and fervent supporters. It's a celebration of sportsmanship and the relentless quest for victory.

Final Thoughts


As Auburn gears up to take on Oklahoma, the matchup promises to be a spectacle of athletic prowess and strategic brilliance. Whether you're a die-hard fan, a casual observer, or someone who cherishes the spirit of competition, this game is a reminder of why we love sports. It's about the underdog's potential to upset the established order and the power of teamwork and perseverance.

As the Tigers aim to roar back into the national spotlight, one thing is certain—win or lose, Auburn's journey is a testament to the enduring allure of college football. Let's sit back, enjoy the game, and celebrate the narratives that make sports an integral part of our lives.

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College Football Overtime: Oklahoma’s offseason gamble, USF’s upset over Florida top Week 2 takeaways – 247Sports | Analysis by Brian Moineau

Posted on by Brian Moineau

College Football Overtime: Oklahoma's offseason gamble, USF's upset over Florida top Week 2 takeaways - 247Sports | Analysis by Brian Moineau

Title: The Sweet Symphony of College Football: Week 2's Overtime Thrills and Spills

Ah, the unmistakable sound of cowbells ringing. It's a melody that heralds the return of college football in all its chaotic, unpredictable glory. Week 2 of the season did not disappoint, offering a smorgasbord of upsets, gambles, and gridiron drama that kept fans glued to their screens.

Oklahoma's High-Stakes Gamble

Let's kick things off with Oklahoma's offseason gamble. The Sooners, under the leadership of head coach Brent Venables, have taken a bold leap this season. Entering Week 2, all eyes were on Oklahoma to see how their strategic offseason adjustments would play out. The team boldly embraced new tactics, emphasizing speed and agility, reminiscent of Lincoln Riley's high-flying offense during his tenure. While the initial results have been promising, the true test lies in maintaining consistency throughout the season. Venables, with his defensive acumen, has the challenge of balancing innovation with the tried-and-true methods that have historically brought success to Norman.

USF's Shocking Upset Over Florida

Meanwhile, in a twist that could rival any plot from a sports drama, the University of South Florida Bulls pulled off a stunning upset over the University of Florida Gators. This victory was more than just a win; it was a statement. For head coach Jeff Scott, it was a validation of his efforts to transform the Bulls into a formidable force. The game was a testament to the unpredictable nature of college football, where underdogs rise, and giants falter. It also served as a reminder of the rich tapestry of rivalries and narratives that make the sport so compelling.

A Broader Perspective: Gambles and Upsets Beyond the Field

This week in college football parallels many real-world phenomena where gambles can lead to seismic shifts. Consider the tech industry, where startups disrupt established giants with bold innovations, or in politics, where unexpected election results can reshape national landscapes. These parallels remind us that whether it's on the field or off, taking calculated risks can lead to profound changes.

The Cultural Phenomenon of College Football

Beyond the X's and O's, college football is a cultural phenomenon in the United States, akin to the fervor seen in European soccer or cricket in India. It's about more than just the games; it's about traditions, community, and a sense of identity. The ringing cowbells, the tailgates, and the alma mater songs all contribute to an experience that transcends the sport itself.

Final Thoughts: The Journey Ahead

As the season progresses, teams like Oklahoma and USF will continue to navigate the highs and lows of competition. For fans, Week 2 has already set the stage for a thrilling season. Whether you're a die-hard supporter or a casual observer, there's no denying the allure of college football. It's a reminder that in sports, as in life, the journey is just as important as the destination. So, keep those cowbells handy and prepare for more unforgettable moments on the road ahead.

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