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The Era of Forever Layoffs in 2025 | Analysis by Brian Moineau

Posted on by Brian Moineau

A slow bleed: 1.1 million layoffs and the rise of “forever layoffs”

The economy is sending mixed signals: corporate profits and soaring stock indexes on one hand, and a steady trickle of pink slips on the other. In 2025, U.S. employers announced roughly 1.17 million job cuts through November — the most since the pandemic year and a level you have to go back to 2009 to match. That “drip, drip” pattern isn't just a statistical quirk; it’s remaking how people experience work and how companies manage labor. (fortune.com)

What’s new: forever layoffs explained

  • “Forever layoffs” describe frequent, small-scale reductions — dozens instead of thousands — that recur throughout the year rather than one headline-grabbing mass layoff. Glassdoor says these rolling cuts now account for a growing share of corporate reductions and have shifted the emotional tenor at work from shock to chronic unease. (fortune.com)
  • Challenger, Gray & Christmas counted about 1,170,821 announced job cuts through November 2025, a 54% increase from the same period in 2024. November’s announced cuts were 71,321, down sharply from October but still historically elevated for the month. (reuters.com)

Why this matters now

  • Psychological effect: small, repeated cuts keep employees anxious in a way a one-time event doesn’t. Glassdoor’s analysis suggests mentions of “layoffs” and “job insecurity” in company reviews are higher now than in March 2020. That sustained anxiety corrodes morale and productivity. (fortune.com)
  • Structural shift: companies are leaning into automation and AI and reorganizing around tools that require fewer people for the same work. Challenger and Glassdoor data show AI and restructuring are explicit drivers of many cuts. (reuters.com)
  • Labor market disconnect: hiring plans through November were the weakest since 2010, with employers announcing far fewer planned hires than layoffs — a recipe for “jobless growth” and weak labor mobility. (fortune.com)

The context: not just tech, not just one sector

  • Technology remains among the hardest-hit private industries, but telecom, retail, food processing, nonprofits, media, and small businesses have all trimmed staff in 2025. The pattern is broad-based, meaning the risk of churn exists in many workplaces. (fortune.com)
  • Federal datasets such as JOLTS suggest the raw count of people separated from jobs may be even higher than announced cuts, underscoring the gap between announced plans and actual labor-market churn. Glassdoor cited JOLTS in noting about 1.7 million separations over the same window, a reminder that announced cuts are a partial view. (fortune.com)

Who wins, who loses

  • Winners: Large firms with balance sheets, scale, and access to capital can restructure without immediate pain and can adopt automation to protect margins. Investors can celebrate efficiency; boards may pat themselves on the back. (fortune.com)
  • Losers: Workers — especially early-career and white-collar employees who once counted on steady upward mobility — face career uncertainty, fewer entry-level roles, and tougher bargaining power. Small businesses, with thin margins, are also vulnerable and have been shedding jobs in aggregate. (fortune.com)

Economic and social implications

  • A K-shaped recovery becomes more entrenched: high earners continue spending while lower-income households pull back, widening inequality and concentrating demand among a narrower consumer group. (fortune.com)
  • Consumer confidence and spending patterns may fragment: if many workers live with chronic job insecurity, durable spending and housing decisions will be delayed — a drag on growth that’s hard to capture in headline GDP figures. (fortune.com)
  • Political pressure grows: sustained layoffs and weak hiring invite policy debates about unemployment insurance, retraining, AI regulation, and labor protections — issues already emerging in 2025 discussions. (reuters.com)

Practical signals to watch in the coming months

  • Hiring plans vs. announced cuts: if the gap narrows because hiring picks up, the worst of the labor-market anxiety may ease. If cuts continue to outpace hires, the “forever” trend is likely to persist. (reuters.com)
  • Sectoral shifts: watch how many announced layoffs explicitly cite AI or automation. That will tell us whether the job losses are cyclical or structural. (reuters.com)
  • Small business payrolls: ADP’s November data showed small businesses bore most November private-sector losses; continued weakness here suggests consumer-facing parts of the economy could weaken further. (fortune.com)

My take

We’re living through a recalibration of corporate labor strategy. The 1.17 million announced cuts through November 2025 are a headline number — but the real story is how layoffs are being delivered: quietly, repeatedly, and often in ways that avoid the reputational cost of mass firings. That makes the phenomenon harder to measure with a single statistic and more corrosive to worker confidence. For policymakers and leaders who care about sustainable growth, the policy challenge is twofold: soften the human cost (through better transitions, training, and safety nets) and shape incentives so investments in people aren’t replaced wholesale by automation that concentrates gains at the top.

Final thoughts

If this pattern holds, we won’t remember 2025 simply as a year of layoffs; we’ll remember it as the year the employment contract changed. The task ahead is to decide whether that change will become a grinding permanent norm or a painful but short-lived rebalancing. Either way, the millions affected this year deserve policies, corporate practices, and community responses that treat transitions as human — not just accounting — problems. (fortune.com)

Sources

Why 25% of the Unemployed Are Degreed | Analysis by Brian Moineau

Posted on by Brian Moineau

A surprising flip: college grads are 25% of the unemployed — what that really means

You’ve probably heard the headline: Americans with four‑year degrees now make up a record 25% of the unemployed. It sounds like a sudden education crisis — but the story is subtler, and more revealing about how the U.S. labor market is changing.

This post unpacks why that 25% number matters, what’s driving it, and what it means for workers, employers, and anyone trying to read the economy’s next moves.

Why the headline feels wrong (and why it’s not)

  • A rising share of unemployed workers holding bachelor’s degrees does not automatically mean college is devalued.
  • Two broad forces are at work at the same time:
    • The share of U.S. workers with bachelor’s degrees has been steadily increasing for decades — more degree‑holders in the labor force means degree‑holders also make up a larger slice of any labor statistic, even unemployment.
    • White‑collar hiring has cooled sharply during recent hiring cycles, and layoffs in certain industries (notably tech and other professional sectors) have put more degree‑holders into unemployment than in prior years.

In short: more college‑educated people are in the workforce than before, and many of the jobs that typically employ them have slowed hiring or cut back.

The bigger context you should know

  • Educational attainment has risen across generations. The Pew Research Center notes that the share of workers with at least a bachelor’s degree climbed substantially over the last two decades. As degrees become more common, statistics that show the distribution of unemployment naturally shift. (pewresearch.org)
  • At the same time, macro shifts have curtailed hiring in white‑collar roles. Firms in technology, finance, and professional services trimmed headcount in recent years, and many employers have become more cautious about new hires — a trend highlighted across reporting on 2024–2025 labor developments. This increases the visibility of unemployed degree‑holders in headline snapshots. (reuters.com)
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics still shows that, on average, higher education correlates with lower unemployment rates and higher earnings — the “education pays” pattern remains intact when you look at unemployment rates by attainment, not just shares of the unemployed. That nuance matters: degree‑holders still tend to have lower unemployment rates than less‑educated peers. (bls.gov)

What the 25% figure actually signals

  • It signals a slowdown in the kinds of hiring that have absorbed college grads in prior cycles — recruiting freezes, slower openings in corporate roles, and sectoral layoffs. Those trends push degree‑holders into unemployment faster than replacements arrive.
  • It also signals composition change: as more people obtain four‑year degrees, they become a larger slice of both the employed and unemployed populations. A record share of unemployed degree‑holders can therefore reflect both real job losses in certain sectors and a long‑term shift in worker education levels.
  • It is not, by itself, proof that a bachelor’s degree no longer opens doors. The BLS data continue to show lower unemployment rates and higher median earnings for those with bachelor’s and advanced degrees compared with less‑educated workers. (bls.gov)

Who’s most affected

  • Workers in mid‑career white‑collar roles tied to corporate spending, advertising, or enterprise tech have felt the most abrupt swings. Tech layoffs beginning in 2022–2023 and periodic waves of cuts among professional services have a disproportionate effect on degree‑holding unemployment.
  • New graduates may face softer entry markets when employers pull back on hiring, while mid‑career professionals can be hit by structural shifts (outsourcing, AI tools changing role scopes, demand slowdowns).
  • Geographical and industry differences remain large: local markets and certain occupations still have strong demand for degree‑level skills.

What workers and employers can do now

  • For workers:
    • Build adaptable skills that translate across roles (data literacy, project management, communication).
    • Consider expanding the toolkit beyond a single specialization — short courses, certificates, and targeted reskilling can help in tighter markets.
    • Network intentionally and consider lateral roles that keep you employed while you pivot.
  • For employers:
    • Reassess talent pipelines: if hiring is slow, invest in retention, internal mobility, and upskilling rather than broad layoffs that can hollow out future capacity.
    • Be explicit about which skills are truly mission‑critical; avoid relying on degree as a blunt proxy for ability.

A few caveats for reading labor headlines

  • Watch denominators: percent shares are sensitive to who’s in the labor force. More degree‑holders overall naturally raises their share of unemployment unless hiring rises proportionally.
  • Check both unemployment rates (chance of being unemployed within a group) and shares of the unemployed (composition across groups). They tell different stories.
  • Sector and age breakdowns matter. National aggregate headlines can mask very different trends across industries and regions.

Key takeaways

  • The 25% headline is real, but it’s a composite effect: more degree‑holders in the workforce plus weaker white‑collar hiring.
  • Education still correlates with lower unemployment rates and higher earnings — the value of a degree hasn’t been overturned by this statistic alone. (bls.gov)
  • The labor market is shifting: employers and workers both need to focus more on adaptable, demonstrable skills than on credentials alone.
  • Read both rates and shares, and look beneath national headlines to industries, age groups, and local markets for the clearest signal.

My take

This is a useful corrective to a simple narrative that “college equals job security forever.” The modern labor market rewards adaptability as much as credentials. For policy and corporate leaders, the right response isn’t to declare degrees obsolete, but to invest in continuous training, clearer signals of skill, and pathways that let degree‑holders reskill into growing roles. For individuals, the smartest hedge is to pair credentials with a mindset and portfolio of skills that travel across jobs and sectors.

Sources



Related update: We recently published an article that expands on this topic: read the latest post.

Paramount Cuts After Skydance Merger | Analysis by Brian Moineau

Posted on by Brian Moineau

Paramount Layoffs After Skydance Merger: What Happened and Why It Matters

Introduction — a quick hook
Paramount has begun a sweeping round of layoffs that reach across CBS Entertainment, Paramount+, MTV and other properties — a major consolidation move that follows its recent merger with Skydance. For employees, viewers and creators, the cuts signal a new era of cost-focused consolidation at one of Hollywood’s biggest media houses.

What’s going on (context and background)
In August 2025 Skydance and Paramount completed a high-profile merger that combined Skydance’s production muscle with Paramount’s legacy TV and streaming businesses. Within weeks, new leadership set out a plan to reduce overlap, streamline operations and cut costs — a process that culminated in layoffs that began in late October 2025.

The first wave eliminated roughly 1,000 roles across multiple divisions, with company statements and reporting indicating the total reduction will be about 2,000 jobs (around 10% of the combined workforce) once subsequent rounds are complete. A memo from CEO David Ellison framed the cuts as part of restructuring after the merger; outside reporting has also described a broader target of substantial cost savings as Paramount refocuses priorities under the Skydance-led management team.

Why this matters

  • It affects major content and distribution units: staff reductions touch broadcast (CBS), streaming (Paramount+), youth and music networks (MTV) and other cable and studio operations — meaning decisions about programming, development and day-to-day operations could change.
  • Industry ripple effects: large-scale layoffs immediately alter project staffing, timelines and freelance opportunities and can influence what kinds of shows and formats get greenlit.
  • Strategic repositioning: the move signals that the new leadership is prioritizing efficiency and margin improvement, which may change long-term creative strategy (fewer, higher-budget tentpoles vs. broader slates; more franchise-focused content; emphasis on profitable streaming models).

Key takeaways

  • Paramount Skydance has begun mass layoffs following the August 2025 merger; about 1,000 jobs were cut in the first wave and roughly 2,000 jobs in total are expected. (October 2025 reporting.)
  • Cuts span CBS Entertainment, Paramount+, MTV and other divisions — not limited to a single business unit.
  • The layoffs are part of a broader cost-cutting and restructuring plan under new CEO David Ellison aimed at eliminating overlap and realigning the combined company.
  • Industry consequences include potential delays or cancellations of projects, shifts in commissioning strategy, and reduced staffing for news, production and development teams.
  • This is consistent with typical post-merger consolidation, but the scale and timing mean the effects will be widely felt across creative and corporate ranks.

Scannable snapshot: who’s affected and what to watch

  • Affected groups: corporate staff, production and development teams, cable network personnel, and some news and streaming operations.
  • Near-term risks: halted projects, fewer development deals, hiring freezes, and an increase in freelance competition.
  • What to watch next: official company disclosures (quarterly earnings and SEC filings), statements from division leaders (CBS, Paramount+), and follow-up reporting on which teams and shows are most impacted.

Short concluding reflection
Mergers promise scale and new capabilities, but they also bring hard choices. The Paramount–Skydance layoffs are a stark reminder that corporate consolidation often translates into sharper editorial and staffing decisions on the ground. For viewers, the biggest question will be whether these cuts narrow the range of original voices and experimentation on air and on streaming — and for the industry, whether the refocused Paramount produces a smaller slate of more concentrated hits or a leaner, but less diverse offering.

Sources



Related update: We recently published an article that expands on this topic: read the latest post.