Moineauworld

Day: August 20, 2026

Crow-Armstrong’s Defensive Edge vs Ohtani | Analysis by Brian Moineau

Posted on by Brian Moineau

TL;DR

  • The Crow-Armstrong vs. Ohtani NL MVP race has shifted from vibe to variance: sportsbooks now price Pete Crow-Armstrong as a slight favorite over Shohei Ohtani as of August 19, 2026, reflecting defensive value and Ohtani’s uncertain pitching volume. [2][5]
  • Statcast has Crow-Armstrong leading MLB outfielders at +23 Outs Above Average in 2026; if you translate those runs to wins, his glove alone is contributing roughly two-plus wins — a hidden edge in a close ballot. [3][6]
  • Unless Ohtani meaningfully returns to the mound in September, the two-way tiebreaker evaporates; LA’s own updates suggest opener-style stints rather than full starts are likelier down the stretch. [4][5]

What the source said

ESPN frames the National League MVP debate as a daily coin flip between two elite but radically different stars in 2026: Dodgers phenom Shohei Ohtani and Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. The feature contrasts Ohtani’s two-way upside with Crow-Armstrong’s contact-speed-defense stack, using evaluator quotes and on-field examples from Los Angeles and Chicago. It stresses how voters must weigh a DH’s thunderous bat (plus a possible pitching return) against a center fielder’s run prevention and baserunning, with Statcast feeds shaping the case on both coasts. The tone: a tightening race with divergent value components under a 2026 microscope. [1]

Why it matters

The real stakeholders aren’t only Cubs and Dodgers fans. The BBWAA electorate must reconcile modern tracking data (OAA, baserunning runs) with traditional MVP heuristics; VegasInsider’s lines already react to updates on Ohtani’s mound timeline; national TV partners want a September arc that keeps neutral fans watching. A mispriced narrative — “Ohtani if he pitches, otherwise PCA” — can distort betting markets, media framing, and even late-season usage decisions. [2]

Chicago’s front office built a run-prevention roster around Wrigley’s expansive outfield; a Crow-Armstrong MVP validates that 2026 strategy in a league drifting back toward athletic defense. For Los Angeles, the calculus is postseason-first at Dodger Stadium: they’re chasing a World Series three‑peat, and a healthy Ohtani on the mound matters more than an August odds swing — but that same opener-style choice could tip the award margin in September. [4][5]

Original analysis

Crow-Armstrong vs. Ohtani NL MVP race: value matrix

  • A named typology (Value Matrix)

    • Visible Offense, High Volume: Ohtani’s nightly DH thunder; the case most fans perceive in real time.
    • Visible Offense, Multirole: Ohtani’s two‑way ceiling if he returns to the mound with real innings.
    • Hidden Prevention, High Frequency: Crow-Armstrong vacuuming singles in center; every tracked route trims expected runs.
    • Hidden Prevention, Momentum Plays: Extra bases denied, 5‑star catches, “don’t test that arm” deterrence — the runs no box score credits but Statcast tallies. [3]

  • Back‑of‑envelope calculation (with the math)

    • Crow-Armstrong’s 2026 Statcast OAA: +23, MLB-best among outfielders as of August 19, 2026. [3]
    • Rule of thumb: roughly 10 runs ≈ 1 win (the conversion varies with run environment; FanGraphs outlines the method). [6]
    • If we treat OAA as a proxy for defensive runs saved (intuition aid): +23 OAA ≈ ~+2.3 wins.
    • Add his 2026 baserunning “Baserunning Runs” of +5 on Savant (component-level estimate) and you’re near +0.5 wins more; together, that’s roughly three wins of non-bat contribution before the slash line enters the chat. [3][6]

  • The pitching variable that props up Ohtani’s case has softened

    • Dodgers updates from late July and early August cite knee-driven caution, bullpen sessions, and a likely “multi‑inning opener” path rather than 5–6 inning starts before October. That caps pitching WAR accumulation and, crucially, the narrative torque of “two‑way” in voters’ eyes. [4][5]
    • If he logs opener stints, Ohtani’s offense must carry the rest. That recasts the race as bat-only Ohtani versus two‑phase Crow-Armstrong (defense + baserunning), not true two-way versus glove-first CF. [4][5]

  • Markets are already tilting

    • As of August 19, VegasInsider’s consolidated board lists PCA at roughly -160 and Ohtani in the +125 to +150 range (books vary), implying a ~61–65% chance for PCA versus ~40–44% for Ohtani before juice. [2]

  • Stakeholder breakdown (one‑liners)

    • Dodgers (Dave Roberts, front office): Prioritize October; opener stints protect health but surrender the regular-season two-way aura that sways MVP votes. [4][5]
    • Cubs (Craig Counsell, Jed Hoyer): Keep PCA in center daily; defense and baserunning compound even when the bat cools at Wrigley Field.
    • BBWAA voters: This is the cleanest test yet of whether Statcast‑driven prevention (OAA, extra bases prevented) earns equal billing with HR/RBI in MVP math. [3]
    • Sportsbooks: Price risk around Ohtani’s mound timeline more than day‑to‑day wRC+ splits; status updates move lines faster than a single 3‑for‑4. [2][4]
    • MLB broadcast partners: The split‑screen September — Ohtani’s bullpen cams vs. PCA’s nightly jumps — fuels prime‑time segments in Los Angeles and Chicago.

  • A contrarian read

    • Consensus: “If Ohtani throws even a handful of September starts, the MVP is his to lose.”
    • The case against: LA’s public posture makes full-length starts unlikely before October; the likelier opener usage doesn’t create enough delta in pitching WAR or narrative to overcome PCA’s day‑to‑day prevention lead and Chicago’s highlight‑caliber plays in a playoff chase. Betting markets — cold-blooded aggregators of that probability tree — already reflect this shift. [2][4][5]

What others are missing

Coverage keeps circling WAR totals but undersells the play-by-play mechanics giving Crow-Armstrong his edge: Statcast’s “Extra Bases Prevented” and “Outfielder Jump.” In 2026, PCA sits at +23 OAA with elite jump components (reaction +1.9 ft, route +4.6 ft vs. average on tracked plays) and positive “Fielder Runs” in outfield defense; that mix slashes liners in front and gashes in the gaps while shrinking first‑to‑third attempts (four runs credited in baserunner deterrence). Those micro-denials reduce stressful pitches and shorten innings for a Cubs bullpen that benefits at Wrigley Field every night. [3]

What to watch next

  1. By September 25, 2026, the Dodgers will use Ohtani only in opener-style regular-season pitching appearances (≤3 IP each), with no traditional 5+ inning start before the postseason. [4]
  2. By September 30, 2026, Crow-Armstrong will finish the regular season with ≥20 OAA and rank first among all MLB outfielders in OAA. [3]
  3. By September 20, 2026, NL MVP odds will widen to PCA -250 or shorter at at least one major book aggregator if Ohtani has not logged a 5+ inning start by then. [2][4]

My take

Give me Crow-Armstrong for NL MVP in 2026. The two-way tiebreaker that usually hands Ohtani the crown won’t materialize if Los Angeles keeps him on an opener leash — and they should, because October at Dodger Stadium matters more than plaques. Meanwhile, PCA’s Statcast record is a metronome: +23 OAA, top‑tier jump, and real baserunning runs that change innings. In a season where the margins are thin, the right answer isn’t the loudest bat — it’s the player who erases the most runs while adding enough with the stick. [3][6][4][2]

Sources

  1. Crow-Armstrong vs. Ohtani NL MVP race — ESPN MLB (https://www.espn.com/mlb/) — The debate setup: contrasting PCA’s defense/speed with Ohtani’s two‑way ceiling through opponent/evaluator perspectives in 2026.

  2. 2026 MLB Most Valuable Player Odds — VegasInsider (https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/mvp/) — Current market pricing as of August 19, 2026: PCA favored over Ohtani across major books; establishes the live tilt.

  3. Pete Crow-Armstrong — Baseball Savant Statcast page (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/pete-crow-armstrong-691718?season=2026) — Verifies +23 OAA (rank 1 among OF), 2026 outfielder jump components, sprint speed, and 2026 fielding/baserunning run values.

  4. Dodgers/Ohtani pitching status updates — MLB.com Dodgers news (https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/) — Late July–early August notes: bullpen sessions resumed; regular-season workload framed toward multi‑inning opener stints.

  5. Shohei Ohtani’s return to the mound remains unclear — Los Angeles Times (https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers) — Independent reporting that LA had not reached a shut‑down decision but acknowledged uncertainty around regular-season pitching volume.

  6. Converting Runs to Wins — FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library (https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/converting-runs-to-wins/) — Explains the runs‑to‑wins conversion and the “~10 runs per win” rule of thumb used in the back‑of‑envelope calculation.



Related update: We recently published an article that expands on this topic: read the latest post.

Related update: We recently published an article that expands on this topic: read the latest post.

Mini-Cherry Pies | Made by Meaghan Moineau

Posted on by Meaghan Moineau

It was one of those late-summer afternoons when the air was just starting to hint at autumn, but the sun was still holding onto its golden warmth. I found myself with a surplus of sour cherries, thanks to an overly ambitious trip to the farmer’s market. Faced with a mountain of cherries and not much time, the answer was clear: mini-cherry pies. They’re the perfect little treat that balances the tartness of the cherries with a buttery, flaky crust. Plus, they’re just the right size for a sweet pick-me-up without the commitment of a full pie. These pies come together surprisingly quickly, and their rustic charm makes them just as impressive as they are easy to put together. So, let’s dive in and make some magic with those cherries.

Jump to Recipe

What You’ll Need

Good news: chances are you already have most of this at home. These mini-cherry pies rely on simple ingredients that pack a punch.

  • Sour cherries – the star of the show, bringing that perfect tart bite
  • Cornstarch – to thicken the cherry filling
  • Flour – for that tender, flaky crust
  • Granulated sugar – just a dash to balance the cherries
  • Heavy whipping cream – for brushing that gives a beautiful golden finish
  • Fresh lemon juice – a little zing to elevate the flavors
  • Pecans – optional, for a bit of crunch if you fancy it
  • Turbinado sugar – for sprinkling on top, adding sweetness and texture
  • Unsalted butter – because butter is life
  • Vanilla extract – a splash for warmth and depth
  • Water – to bring the dough together

How to Make Mini-Cherry Pies

  1. In a food processor, add butter to the flour mixture and pulse until you see a crumbly texture, about 30 seconds. You want those bits of butter to still be visible.
  2. With the processor running, slowly add 2/3 cup of cold water through the lid opening until the dough forms a ball. Flatten dough into two disks, wrap in plastic, and refrigerate for an hour.
  3. Preheat your oven to 350°F (175°C). Roll one pastry disk on a lightly floured surface to about 1/8-inch thickness. Fit the dough into twelve 2-1/2-inch mini pie plates, trimming the edges. Freeze them until firm, around 10 minutes.
  4. Prick the bottoms and sides of the dough with a fork and bake until they’re golden, about 6 to 8 minutes. Let the aroma guide you—it should smell toasty but not burnt.
  5. In a small bowl, stir together cornstarch and the remaining 2 tablespoons of cold water until blended. In a large saucepan, combine cherries, cornstarch mixture, sugar, and a pinch of salt. Cook over medium heat until cherries soften and the mixture thickens. Stir in lemon juice and vanilla.
  6. Now, for the fun part! Roll out the remaining pastry disk to 1/8-inch thickness. Cut dough into thin strips, about 1/8 to 1/4-inch wide, and weave them into lattice tops for the pies.
  7. Carefully transfer the lattice tops onto each pie and trim the edges. Gently press to seal. Brush the tops and edges with a bit of cream, then sprinkle generously with turbinado sugar.
  8. Bake until the crusts turn a gorgeous golden brown, about 18 to 24 minutes. They should be fragrant and inviting. Serve warm with a scoop of vanilla ice cream, if you’re feeling indulgent.

Cook’s Notes

If you’re like me and tend to rush through things, resist the urge to skip chilling the dough. It’s crucial for that perfect flaky texture. Also, when making the lattice tops, it’s more about the rustic charm than perfection, so don’t worry if they’re a bit uneven. These mini pies are best enjoyed fresh, but they can be stored in an airtight container for up to two days. You can also prepare the dough a day in advance, just be sure to let it sit out for a bit to soften before rolling it out.

Make It Your Own

  • Swap the sour cherries for blueberries or raspberries for a berry twist.
  • Mix in some cinnamon or nutmeg to the cherry filling for a spiced variation.
  • Top with streusel instead of lattice for a crumbly topping.
  • For a nutty flavor, add chopped pecans to the dough or sprinkle them on top before baking.

If you whip up these mini-cherry pies, I’d love to hear how they turn out! Drop a comment below or tag me on social media. Your kitchen adventures make my day!

Related Reading

Goes Well With

If you want to round out the meal, here’s what I’d pair it with over on meaghanmoineau.com:

Related update: Mini-Cherry Pies

Related update: Brandy-Apple Mini Pies With Cornmeal Crust