Fox-Roku Deal: Streaming Power Shift | Analysis by Brian Moineau

TL;DR

  • The Fox–Roku deal doesn’t just add content; it seizes the TV “home screen,” giving Fox bargaining power over discovery, data, and ad flows across tens of millions of U.S. living rooms. [2][5]
  • If DOJ lets Paramount–WBD close, David Ellison would consolidate two national newsrooms (CBS and CNN) while Fox consolidates distribution—an inverted barbell of power that squeezes everyone in the middle. [7][8]
  • Expect higher ad yields, tougher carriage terms for rival streamers, and regulatory flashpoints around “default bias” on Roku’s OS—the new choke point of the streaming wars. [3][5][7]

What the source said

Salon argues that Fox’s $22 billion acquisition of Roku and DOJ’s treatment of Ellison’s $111 billion bid to merge Paramount with Warner Bros. Discovery shift the fight from content to distribution power. [1][2][3][7][8]

The piece cites Pew’s 36% pay‑TV figure in 2025 as context for cord‑cutting, and points to Paramount’s refusal to air an advocacy ad as an example of consolidation’s real‑world effects. The thesis: control the pipe, shape the message. [4][16]

Why it matters

Two chokepoints are emerging in U.S. video in 2026. On one end, Fox buys Roku and, with it, the default interface and first‑party data that steer what Americans watch via Roku OS. On the other, Ellison’s Paramount–WBD deal would centralize CBS and CNN alongside major studios under a single balance sheet. [2][5][7][8]

Real stakeholders aren’t just “the audience.” They’re the streamers (Disney, Netflix, Amazon) that rent Roku’s shelf space; advertisers shifting budget into connected TV; and regulators (DOJ, FCC, state AGs) weighing whether TV‑OS defaults and self‑preferencing echo the Microsoft browser‑bundling fights in 2001. Local broadcasters, smaller FASTs, and publishers face worse negotiating power if they lack a gateway. [4][5][10]

Original analysis

The consensus take says “Fox bought Roku to bulk up streaming; Ellison’s Paramount–WBD is another mega‑merger.” That’s surface‑level. The deeper story is a pivot from programming to power over defaults on the TV home screen. That is exactly what Roku already sells—and what Fox just bought. [2][3][5]

In connected TV, defaults drive outcomes at scale. The company that sets the home screen, controls the search graph, and allocates promotional tiles determines which shows get sampled, which subscriptions renew, and which ad impressions clear. Those choices turn into revenue and bargaining power against every app on the platform. [2][5]

Historical analogue (what it predicts): United States v. Microsoft (2001) centered on bundling Internet Explorer into Windows to maintain OS power; courts upheld monopoly‑maintenance findings under Sherman Act §2 and scrutinized tying. Replace Windows with Roku OS and IE with house channels (Tubi, The Roku Channel), and the rhyme is obvious: default placement and self‑preferencing can foreclose rivals without banning them outright. Expect complainants to frame “home screen promos” and search ranking as a connected‑TV version of browser bundling. [7][10]

Back‑of‑envelope math (distribution economics):

  • Roku platform revenue in 2025 was roughly $4.15B; Roku guided high‑teens platform growth for 2026—assume +18% to ~$4.90B. [11][12][13][14]
  • If 70–80% of platform revenue is ad‑driven, apply +5% yield uplift from Fox‑controlled self‑preferencing to the midpoint (75%) of $4.90B: 0.75 × $4.90B = $3.675B ad base → +5% ≈ +$184M incremental annual ad revenue before partner concessions; even if half materializes, that’s ~$90M of low‑capex uplift tied to UI nudges. [11][12]
  • Share math: In Feb. 2026, The Roku Channel captured 2.9% of streaming viewership vs. Tubi at 2.2%; in ad‑supported streaming, Tubi ranked No. 1 at 6.2% in Q4 2025. If Fox diverts even one point of FAST discovery toward Tubi while IAB projects 2026 U.S. digital video at $80B+ (CTV a ~$20B slice), a 1‑point FAST share swing can translate into nine‑figure revenue depending on CPMs and sell‑through. Direction beats precision. [6][9][15][16]

A named typology: The TV Gatekeeper Matrix

  • Owned Content × Owned Distribution: Fox + Roku (Tubi, The Roku Channel inside Roku OS). Advantage: default bias, first‑party data, ad stack. Risk: antitrust scrutiny of self‑preferencing. [2][3][5]
  • Owned Content × Rented Distribution: Paramount–WBD (post‑deal) still reliant on third‑party platforms while building its own apps. Advantage: IP scale across CBS, CNN, and studios. Risk: platform tolls and discovery dependence. [7][8]
  • Rented Content × Owned Distribution: Samsung Tizen, LG webOS—OS control with thinner originals. Advantage: OEM reach into U.S. households. Risk: monetization frictions with app partners. [5]
  • Rented Content × Rented Distribution: Niche FASTs and SVODs living on others’ OSes. Advantage: focus. Risk: margin squeeze and limited shelf space.

Stakeholder breakdown (one‑liners):

  • Disney/Netflix/Amazon: Higher platform taxes and tougher placement negotiations on Roku; hedge with Samsung, LG, and Google TV distribution. [5]
  • NBCU/Peacock and YouTube: Near‑term winners—YouTube’s share lead holds across OSes; Peacock can still buy top‑shelf tiles but at rising prices. [6]
  • Samsung/LG: Counter with subsidized smart‑TV bundles and revenue‑share promos to pry apps from Roku‑centric funnels. [5]
  • Advertisers (P&G, GM, SMEs): Better cross‑screen targeting via Roku’s first‑party graph—if Fox preserves openness; CTV’s double‑digit growth in 2026 strengthens this pull. [13][15]
  • Regulators/State AGs: The case file writes itself: defaults, house‑channel boosting, and discovery throttling—citing Microsoft 2001 on page one. [10]

Contrarian read: The fear is Fox will blatantly stack the deck for Tubi and Fox News on Roku. My read: Fox will publicly preach “open platform” to keep Netflix, Disney, Amazon, and OEMs cooperative. The bias will creep in via subtle defaults—autoplay rows, search ranking, “continue watching” tiles, and cross‑app identity prompts that privilege Fox properties without visibly burying rivals. Those nudges are harder to litigate and more powerful commercially. [3][5][10]

What others are missing

The overlooked variable is ad‑tech plumbing, not just app placement. Roku controls native formats (home‑screen marquees, channel rails), measurement hooks, and self‑serve demand tools; Fox inherits those primitives and can bind them to Tubi’s inventory, sports shoulder‑programming, and news clips. Price those units as outcomes (site visits, app installs) instead of impressions, and the multiple expands. If Roku’s 2026 reporting split highlights double‑digit ad growth, Fox can ride a faster re‑rating because Wall Street values ad‑tech like software, not like TV. [11][13][14]

What to watch next

  1. By Q4 2026, at least one top‑5 streamer (YouTube, Netflix, Prime Video, Disney+, Max) publicly alleges or files comments about discriminatory placement or search treatment on Roku’s home screen.

  2. By Q2 2027, Fox integrates Tubi and The Roku Channel demand into a single ad‑buy surface with unified targeting and measurement, and discloses on an investor call a synergy run‑rate uplift of $100M+ tied to this integration. [11][14]

  3. By Q1 2027, a multistate AG coalition opens a probe into connected‑TV “default bias” and self‑preferencing on TV operating systems, naming Roku and at least one OEM OS as targets. [10]

My take

If you think the Fox–Roku deal is “about content,” you’re missing the real grab: owning the map—defaults, search, identity, and ad signal—on the living‑room OS in 2026. Per Nielsen’s Gauge reporting cited by Cord Cutters News, streaming’s share of viewing keeps rising, and IAB projects U.S. digital video ad spend to surpass $80B in 2026. Ellison’s roll‑up may grab headlines, but Fox just bought the steering wheel. I’d be long the gatekeepers and wary of any content company renting shelf space without an OS‑level fallback. [6][9][3][4][5][15]

Sources

  1. With Roku, Fox just won the streaming wars for the right — Salon (https://www.salon.com/2026/06/21/with-roku-fox-just-won-the-streaming-wars-for-the-right/) — The starting thesis that Fox’s Roku buy and Ellison’s bid are a shift from content to distribution.

  2. Fox Corporation to Acquire Roku, Inc. — Fox Corporation (https://www.foxcorporation.com/news/corp-press-releases/2026/fox-corporation-to-acquire-roku-inc/) — Confirms the $22B deal and states the “third‑largest by viewing share” claim.

  3. Fox to buy Roku for $22 billion — Axios (https://www.axios.com/2026/06/15/fox-roku-22-billion) — Independent confirmation of the deal terms and strategic framing.

  4. 83% of U.S. adults use streaming; only 36% subscribe to cable/satellite — Pew Research Center (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/07/01/83-of-us-adults-use-streaming-services-far-fewer-subscribe-to-cable-or-satellite-tv/) — Cord‑cutting baseline used in the analysis.

  5. Roku 28% and Samsung 23% of U.S. broadband‑household CTV usage — Parks Associates (press release) (https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/parks-associates-roku-28-and-samsung-23-dominate-connected-tv-platforms-controlling-access-to-streaming-audiences-in-the-us-market-302749732.html) — OS‑level market power data.

  6. The Roku Channel 2.9% vs. Tubi 2.2% of streaming in Feb. 2026 — Cord Cutters News (https://cordcuttersnews.com/the-roku-channel-is-the-most-watched-free-streaming-service-beating-tubi-pluto-tv-according-to-nielsen/) — Comparative FAST viewing shares cited from Nielsen’s Gauge.

  7. DOJ will “absolutely not” fast‑track Paramount–WBD for political reasons — Variety (https://au.variety.com/2026/film/news/doj-paramount-warner-bros-deal-review-fast-track-review-political-reasons-34449/) — Regulatory posture and ongoing scrutiny.

  8. U.S. clears Paramount’s $111B Warner Bros. takeover (report) — Moneycontrol (https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/us-clears-paramount-s-111-billion-warner-bros-takeover-article-13948430.html) — Report of DOJ clearance juxtaposed with continued reviews; shows contested status.

  9. IAB: U.S. digital video ad spend to surpass $80B in 2026 — IAB (https://www.iab.com/insights/video-ad-spend-report-2026/) — Ad‑market context underpinning the revenue math.

  10. Microsoft antitrust: Court of Appeals opinion (default bundling precedent) — U.S. DOJ (https://www.justice.gov/atr/cases/f204400/204468.htm) — The historical analogue for default‑driven platform power.

  11. Fellow Shareholders: 4Q25 letter — Roku (https://image.roku.com/bWFya2V0aW5n/4Q25-Shareholder-Letter.pdf) — Platform revenue of ~$4.15B and channel share commentary.

  12. Roku 10‑K and 8‑K excerpts on platform growth and home screen monetization — SEC (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1428439/000162828026008114/roku-20251231.htm) — Definitions and revenue mix context.

  13. Roku Q1 2026 ad revenue split (reporting change) — MediaPost (https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/414752/roku-q1-ad-spend-up-27-to-613m.html) — Ad‑revenue growth and disclosure useful for back‑of‑envelope math.

  14. Roku Q1 2026 earnings summary (third‑party extract) — StockTitan (https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/ROKU/10-q-roku-inc-quarterly-earnings-report-05c5a40d6823.html) — Additional color on how platform revenue is earned.

  15. Tubi expands Nielsen deal; 6.2% of ad‑supported streaming in Q4 2025 — MediaPost (https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/412569/tubi-expands-nielsen-deal-now-accounts-for-62-o.html) — FAST strength data for the revenue scenario.

  16. Paramount refused to air FPF’s ad critical of its merger — The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/16/paramount-rejects-ad-on-warner-bros-acquisition) — Concrete example of consolidation effects cited in the post.




Related update: We recently published an article that expands on this topic: read the latest post.


Related update: We recently published an article that expands on this topic: read the latest post.

Ditch Smart TVs: Best Dumb TV Options | Analysis by Brian Moineau

Sick of smart TVs? Here are your best options

You’re not alone. If the idea of a TV that spies on your viewing habits, nags you with ads, or slows to a crawl after a few years sounds terrible, welcome to the club. Smart TVs are brilliant when they work, but they also bundle an always-on computer — complete with telemetry, bloatware, and vendor lock-in — right into your living room. The good news: you don’t have to live with it. Here’s a friendly, practical guide to escaping the smart-TV treadmill without sacrificing picture quality.

Why “dumb” TVs are suddenly a thing again

Over the last decade, manufacturers jammed internet-capable software into every screen. That convenience came with trade-offs:

  • Privacy concerns from telemetry, voice assistants, and ad targeting.
  • Software that ages faster than the hardware — manufacturers often stop updating TV OSes after a few years.
  • Preinstalled apps, ads, and sluggish interfaces that degrade the experience.
  • Repair and longevity problems when a TV’s software becomes a liability.

Ars Technica recently put this tension into sharp focus and asked a simple question: how can you get a great display without the smart-TV strings attached? The answers fall into a few practical categories — each with pros and cons depending on your budget, technical comfort, and tolerance for tinkering. (arstechnica.com)

Choices that work (and what to expect)

1. Buy a genuinely non-smart TV (yes, they still exist)

  • What it is: A basic television that lacks an internet-capable OS.
  • Pros: No telemetry, no ads, simpler UI, sometimes cheaper.
  • Cons: Fewer models available; often lower-tier panels or fewer modern features (HDR, HDMI 2.1) at the same price points.
  • Who this fits: Minimalists, people who watch via antenna/cable or dedicated devices and want a no-friction display.

2. Buy a smart TV and never connect it to the internet

  • What it is: A modern TV with excellent panel tech whose network functions you never enable.
  • Pros: Access to high-quality displays (brightness, color, HDR, HDMI 2.1), longevity of hardware, and you can still use external devices for streaming.
  • Cons: Some TVs force-sign-in screens or firmware checks on boot; internal apps remain dormant but present.
  • Practical tip: Disable Wi‑Fi, don’t plug an Ethernet cable in, and set up your streaming box, game console, or antenna to handle content. Many reviewers say this gives the best balance of picture tech and privacy. (howtogeek.com)

3. Buy a smart TV but strip or lock down its software

  • What it is: Use privacy settings, remove (or hide) accounts, block telemetry, or use router-level DNS/firewall blocks for tracking domains.
  • Pros: Keeps built-in features if you occasionally want them; maintains a single remote experience.
  • Cons: Not foolproof — firmware updates can re-enable things, and it takes technical know-how to manage network-level blocks.
  • Who this fits: Tech-savvy buyers who want the convenience but refuse to be tracked.

4. Use an external streaming box or stick (Roku, Apple TV, Fire TV, Chromecast)

  • What it is: Pair any display with a small, replaceable streaming device.
  • Pros: External devices are updated more regularly, are easier to replace, and centralize streaming under platforms you control. Swap them when they age or you don’t like them.
  • Cons: More boxes/remotes to manage; the external device vendor may still have tracking (so pick one whose privacy stance you like).
  • Note: This is the most future-proof approach — upgrade the streamer, not the display. (arstechnica.com)

5. Consider projectors, computer monitors, or commercial signage

  • What it is: Alternatives that can function as TV displays without consumer smart features.
  • Projectors:
    • Pros: Huge screen for the price; many models remain “dumb.”
    • Cons: Require dark rooms, careful placement, and usually external audio.
  • Computer monitors:
    • Pros: Great pixel density, low latency for gaming.
    • Cons: Cheaper 4K monitors often lack TV features (tuner, speakers).
  • Digital signage displays:
    • Pros: Built for long uptime and durability.
    • Cons: More expensive and sometimes not optimized for home viewing.
  • Who this fits: Home theater enthusiasts, gamers, or anyone willing to accept trade-offs for a non-smart display. (arstechnica.com)

Shopping tips — what to look for when you want a dumb experience

  • Prioritize the panel: contrast ratio, peak brightness (for HDR), color gamut, and refresh rate (for gaming).
  • Count HDMI ports and check HDMI version (HDMI 2.1 matters for modern consoles).
  • If you buy new, read the manual or spec sheet to confirm whether Wi‑Fi or smart features can be completely disabled.
  • Consider warranty and supported hours (especially for signage displays or commercial panels).
  • If buying used, local classifieds or refurb sellers can be gold mines — but test the unit and ask about network features.

Privacy and network-level tricks to keep smart features quiet

  • Put the TV on its own VLAN or guest network and block outbound connections you don’t want (router-level DNS filtering or Pi-hole).
  • Disable automatic firmware updates unless you need a patch.
  • Avoid signing into vendor accounts on the TV; use an external device for services and log in there.
  • Regularly audit permissions for voice assistants or external microphones/cameras.

Alternatives and trade-offs summarized

  • Best for ease: Smart TV kept offline or with an external streamer.
  • Best for minimalism: New non-smart TV (if you can find a good one).
  • Best for picture tech: Modern smart TV used as if it were dumb (disable networking).
  • Best for scale: Projector + external streamer for big-screen enthusiasts.
  • Best for longevity: Commercial signage displays for durability, but watch energy/noise and cost.

What reviewers and testing labs say

Writers and reviewers agree that the simplest, most future-proof choice is to decouple software from hardware: buy the best display you can afford and route streaming through a separate, replaceable device. That way, you update the part that ages fastest (the software/streamer) without tossing the whole screen. Tom’s Guide, How-To Geek, and other outlets echo that trade-off between display quality and embedded software, and Ars Technica’s recent guide lays out the practical options for avoiding smart-TV pitfalls. (tomsguide.com)

What many folks forget: a cheap workaround is often the most durable. Want Netflix and none of the spying? Plug in a streaming stick and never connect the TV itself to the internet.

A few recommended scenarios

  • You want the best picture and low effort: buy a modern TV, keep its network off, and plug in a Roku/Apple TV/Chromecast.
  • You want a pure, simple display: hunt for a non-smart TV model or a refurbished commercial panel.
  • You want a cinematic, big-screen feel: consider a projector with an external streamer and a soundbar.
  • You’re privacy-focused and comfy with networking: block the TV’s telemetry at the router level.

Quick checklist before you buy

  • Does the TV allow disabling Wi‑Fi/Ethernet in settings?
  • Are firmware updates optional or forced?
  • How many HDMI ports and what version?
  • Does the TV have a microphone/camera that can’t be physically disabled?
  • If used, can you test network features before committing?

Parting thoughts

My take: “Dumb” TVs aren’t just nostalgia — they’re a sensible reaction to an ecosystem that too often prioritizes ads and data over user experience. The cleanest, most sustainable path for most people is to buy the best display you can and separate the software with a dedicated streamer. That gives you high-quality picture tech, the ability to swap streaming platforms as they evolve, and a lot more control over privacy without sacrificing convenience.

If you’re truly allergic to anything smart, used markets and budget non-smart models still exist — but be ready to trade some modern features for that peace of mind. Ultimately, the smart move is to choose the approach that keeps upgrades modular: replace the brains, not the TV.

Useful takeaways

  • Keeping a TV offline and using an external streamer is the most practical way to avoid smart-TV tracking without sacrificing modern display tech.
  • Pure non-smart TVs are rare but still available; consider them if you want zero network features.
  • Projectors, monitors, and commercial panels are valid alternatives with unique trade-offs.
  • Network-level blocking and privacy hygiene can significantly reduce telemetry even if you keep smart features available.

Sources




Related update: We recently published an article that expands on this topic: read the latest post.


Related update: We recently published an article that expands on this topic: read the latest post.

Roku Stock Jumps On Improving Profitability, User Growth – Investor’s Business Daily | Analysis by Brian Moineau

Roku Stock Jumps On Improving Profitability, User Growth - Investor's Business Daily | Analysis by Brian Moineau

**Roku's Revival: The Streaming Giant's Path to Profitability and Growth**

In the ever-evolving landscape of streaming services, Roku has delivered a melodious note of optimism, as reported by Investor's Business Daily. The streaming video platform has not only beaten estimates for its fourth-quarter performance but has also signaled a promising shift towards profitability. Unsurprisingly, this news sent Roku’s stock on an upward trajectory, much to the delight of investors and technology enthusiasts alike.

**Roku’s Resilient Rise**

Roku's recent financial performance showcases its resilience and adaptability in an industry characterized by fierce competition and rapid technological advancements. This achievement is particularly noteworthy as it comes at a time when tech companies are grappling with inflationary pressures and changing consumer habits post-pandemic.

The company's robust user growth is a testament to its successful strategies in expanding its reach and enhancing user experience. Roku's platform has become a staple in many households, offering a seamless interface and a wide array of content options. This is no small feat considering the stiff competition from rivals like Amazon Fire TV, Apple TV, and Google Chromecast.

**The Streaming Wars and Roku’s Strategic Play**

The streaming wars have been a central theme in the tech world over the past few years. Giants like Netflix, Disney+, HBO Max, and Amazon Prime Video have been vying for dominance, investing heavily in original content to attract and retain subscribers. Roku, however, has carved a niche for itself by focusing not just on content, but on being the gateway through which content is consumed.

In 2020, Roku acquired Quibi's content library, which was a strategic move to bolster its free streaming service, The Roku Channel. This acquisition allowed Roku to diversify its content offerings and attract more users, capitalizing on the growing trend of cord-cutting.

**A Broader Perspective: Tech Industry's Shift**

Roku's shift towards profitability is reflective of a broader trend in the tech industry. Companies are increasingly being evaluated not just on user growth but also on their ability to turn that growth into sustainable profitability. This shift is evident in the actions of other tech giants as well. For instance, Amazon has been optimizing its operations and focusing on profitability in its retail and AWS segments, while Netflix has been experimenting with ad-supported tiers to boost revenue.

Moreover, as the world becomes more digital, the demand for streaming services shows no signs of waning. According to a report by Grand View Research, the global video streaming market size is expected to reach USD 223.98 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 21.0% from 2021 to 2028. This provides a fertile ground for companies like Roku to continue expanding their user base and enhancing their service offerings.

**Final Thoughts: Roku's Bright Future**

Roku's recent success story is a beacon of hope for the streaming industry. As it continues to innovate and adapt to changing consumer preferences, the company is poised for a bright future. Its focus on profitability, coupled with its ability to attract and retain users, sets a solid foundation for sustained growth.

In a world where digital consumption is becoming the norm, Roku's journey serves as a reminder of the importance of adaptability and strategic foresight. As the streaming wars rage on, Roku's playbook will likely serve as a valuable case study for other companies navigating the complex landscape of digital media.

As we look forward to the next chapter in Roku's story, one thing is clear: the company is not just riding the streaming wave but is actively shaping its future. Here's to more milestones and innovative breakthroughs in the ever-exciting world of streaming!

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