Three-City Kickoff: World Cup Goes Global | Analysis by Brian Moineau

TL;DR

  • The 2026 FIFA World Cup opening ceremonies are a three-city flex: Mexico City launched on June 11 with Shakira, Burna Boy, and the anthem “Dai Dai,” while Toronto and Los Angeles follow on June 12 with big-name slates—staking a claim that the tournament is as much culture as football. [2][3][4][5]
  • The expanded 48‑team, 104‑match format sets an attendance record path; even a conservative 45,000 average would top USA ’94’s 3.59 million, while 60,000–70,000 averages imply roughly 6.2–7.3 million tickets used. [7][8][9]
  • The staggered ceremonies are schedule and monetization architecture: they stretch prime viewing windows across time zones, create more sellable tentpoles for FOX/FS1 and Telemundo/Peacock, and smooth urban operations across three host nations. [4][6]

What the source said

CBS News reports that the largest FIFA Men’s World Cup ever has begun across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada—with three opening ceremonies instead of one. Mexico City’s Azteca show featured Shakira before Mexico beat South Africa 2–0, while Toronto and Los Angeles host their ceremonies on June 12 ahead of Canada–Bosnia and the U.S.–Paraguay. The piece lists artist lineups (Shakira, Burna Boy, Michael Bublé, Alanis Morissette, Katy Perry, LISA, and more), gives kickoff times in ET/PT, notes the 48‑team expansion to 104 matches, and describes stepped‑up U.S. security in host metros. It also flags Toronto’s BMO Field temporary expansion and points fans to live coverage. [1]

Why it matters

Three opening ceremonies signal a new tournament logic for a 48‑team, 104‑match event spread across 16 host cities in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada in 2026. FIFA is multiplying cultural touchpoints that sell ad spots, sponsor activations, and social clips while easing pressure on single venues like SoFi Stadium (Inglewood) and BMO Field (Toronto). The commercial upside concentrates with rights‑holders FOX/FS1 and Telemundo/Peacock and with FIFA’s 2023‑approved format change. [6][7][12]

The downside risk sits with city operations chiefs and transit systems—LA Metro, the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC), and Mexico City’s STC Metro—plus artists tied to production glitches and federations facing a supersized spotlight. U.S. security agencies already elevated their posture around host metros per CBS News, and Toronto’s organizers must sync ceremony timing to a 3:00 p.m. ET kickoff window. In 2026, optics ride alongside outcomes. [1][5]

Original analysis

  • Back‑of‑envelope: the attendance ceiling

    • Total matches: 104. If average in‑stadium attendance hits only 45,000, the tournament draws ≈4.68 million (104 × 45,000), already beating USA ’94’s 3.59 million (3,587,538). If it averages 60,000, that’s ≈6.24 million; at 70,000, ≈7.28 million. Even without universal sellouts, the record falls. [7][8][9]
    • Reference points: USA ’94 totaled 3.587 million across 52 matches; Qatar 2022 drew about 3.4 million across 64 matches. [8][9]
  • Named‑stakeholder breakdown (what this means for them)

    • FIFA: A three‑ceremony format creates three distinct inventory peaks (Mexico City June 11; Toronto and Los Angeles June 12), each with sponsorable “moments.” That spreads risk and magnifies social engagement spikes around official assets like the anthem. [3][4][5]
    • FOX/FS1 and Telemundo/Peacock: A primetime USMNT vs. Paraguay at SoFi (9:00 p.m. ET) sets up a ratings test against 2022’s USA–England Black Friday benchmark near 20 million combined viewers in the U.S. [6][10][11]
    • BMO Field (Toronto): Temporary capacity to ≈45,000 turns Canada’s opener into a full‑stadium TV picture, narrowing the optics gap with NFL‑scale U.S. venues and stress‑testing modular seating at international scale. [12]
    • Mexico City (Azteca): Opening match plus opening ceremony equals global first impression; a 2–0 win over South Africa gives the host’s narrative momentum on day one. [2]
    • Artists/labels: “Dai Dai” as the official anthem debuts live to cross‑market audiences; Shakira and Burna Boy span Latin America, Africa, and U.S. diaspora fandoms, a positioning built for Global 200 lift next chart week. [3][2]
  • A 2×2: What the three opening ceremonies optimize

    • Axis 1: Nation‑branding vs. Global‑pop spectacle.
    • Axis 2: Fan atmosphere vs. Broadcast‑first staging.
    • Mexico City (Nation‑branding × Fan atmosphere): Azteca’s history and a Latin‑leaning lineup (Shakira, Maná, J Balvin) deliver heritage and terrace color on camera. [2][3]
    • Toronto (Nation‑branding × Broadcast‑first): Canadian icons (Alanis Morissette, Michael Bublé) and a tight pre‑kickoff window match domestic pride with TV pacing inside BMO Field. [5][12]
    • Los Angeles (Global‑pop spectacle × Broadcast‑first): Katy Perry, LISA, Future, Anitta, Rema, and Tyla anchor a clip‑engineered show in a U.S. primetime slot from SoFi’s stage. [4][6]
  • Contrarian read

    • Consensus: “Three ceremonies are pure sizzle.”
    • Counter: They are scheduling infrastructure. FIFA and broadcasters are distributing tentpoles across time zones—Mexico City midday local on June 11; Toronto afternoon ET; USA primetime PT/ET on June 12—to widen contiguous viewing blocks for a 39‑day, 104‑match product. That is revenue design, not ornament. [4][6][7]

What others are missing

The three‑ceremony design is an operations‑and‑monetization hack, not just a highlight reel. Staggered start times build a rolling “live” window—Mexico City spectacle feeds Toronto’s afternoon slot, which hands off to L.A. primetime—keeping FOX/FS1 and Telemundo/Peacock in near wall‑to‑wall event mode for two calendar days. That yields more makegoods capacity, more local sponsor activations per host committee, and thinner peaks for security and transit versus one mega‑ceremony. With SoFi’s USMNT kickoff at 9:00 p.m. ET and Toronto’s at 3:00 p.m. ET anchoring different dayparts, this is inventory and incident‑risk management by design. [6][5][4]

What to watch next

  1. By June 27, 2026 (end of the group stage), FIFA’s cumulative attendance tally surpasses 3.6 million, eclipsing USA ’94 before the knockouts begin. [7][8][9]
  2. By June 15, 2026 (first ratings day after the U.S. opener), USA–Paraguay delivers at least 21 million combined U.S. viewers across English and Spanish platforms, topping the ~20 million from USA–England in 2022. [6][10]
  3. By June 12, 2026 (post‑game Toronto), BMO Field’s announced attendance for Canada–Bosnia is ≥44,000, showing the ≈45,000 temporary build‑out can run at scale. [12][5]

My take

I’m bullish on the three‑ceremony model because it converts a 39‑day, 16‑stadium, three‑federation puzzle (USSF, FMF, Canada Soccer) into serialized appointment TV that flatters each country’s identity while hardening FIFA’s commercial spine. The football will write its own stories, but the stagecraft is already earning its keep with primetime U.S. placement at 9:00 p.m. ET and a format approved in March 2023 that expands total inventory to 104 matches. If the U.S. opener clears 21 million combined viewers, brands will treat the rest of the USMNT slate like NFL‑adjacent tentpoles. [6][7][10]

Sources

[1] CBS News — Report on triple opening ceremonies across U.S., Mexico, and Canada; includes artist lineups, kickoff times, venue notes, and U.S. security posture.
[2] Reuters — Match report from June 11, 2026: Mexico 2–0 South Africa at Estadio Azteca and coverage of the Mexico City opening ceremony.
[3] FIFA Media Release (June 2026) — Announcement of the official 2026 anthem “Dai Dai” and participating artists including Shakira and Burna Boy; frames global music strategy.
[4] Los Angeles 2026 Host Committee / SoFi Stadium advisory — LA opening ceremony lineup and timing; confirms primetime window and production scale.
[5] City of Toronto / Host City Toronto briefing — Toronto ceremony slate (Alanis Morissette, Michael Bublé) and same‑day timing ahead of Canada–Bosnia at BMO Field.
[6] FOX Sports and Telemundo Deportes programming advisories — U.S.–Paraguay kickoff at 9:00 p.m. ET and distribution across FOX/FS1 and Telemundo/Peacock; primetime positioning.
[7] FIFA Council decision (March 2023) — 2026 format approval: 48 teams and 104 matches; provides the structural basis for schedule and inventory.
[8] FIFA World Cup USA 1994 statistics — Total attendance of 3,587,538 across 52 matches; historical benchmark.
[9] FIFA / BBC Sport summaries for Qatar 2022 — Approximate total attendance around 3.4 million across 64 matches; recent comparator.
[10] Sports Business Journal (Nov 2022) — USA–England combined U.S. audience near 20 million across English and Spanish; benchmark for 2026 ratings expectations.
[11] Telemundo Deportes (Nov 2022) — Spanish‑language audience records for USA–England, including broadcast and streaming totals; supports combined‑viewership math.
[12] Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment (MLSE) / BMO Field construction brief — Temporary expansion plan to roughly 45,000 capacity for 2026; operational implications for Toronto matches.




Related update: We recently published an article that expands on this topic: read the latest post.


Related update: We recently published an article that expands on this topic: read the latest post.

Switch 1 & 2 Summer Game Fest Wrap-up | Analysis by Brian Moineau

TL;DR

What the source said

Nintendo Life compiled every Switch‑relevant reveal from the Summer Game Fest 2026 weekend, spanning Geoff Keighley’s opener and adjacent shows like Day of the Devs and Wholesome Direct. The roundup lists major beats such as Capcom’s Resident Evil: Code Veronica remake, Fortnite Chapter 7 Season 3 (“Runners”), Cuphead updates, Alien: Isolation 2, and several regional spotlights with Switch tags. Items are grouped by showcase with links and clear notes on platform targeting (Switch 1, Switch 2, or both). Nintendo Life positioned the post as a live index for Switch owners tracking SGF‑weekend news in early June 2026. [1] (https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2026/06/round-up-every-switch-1-and-2-announcement-from-summer-game-fests-weekend-showcases)

Why it matters

The real stakeholders are not just Nintendo fans; they include publishers allocating porting budgets in year two of a platform transition, retailers planning 2026 physical shelf space, and live‑service teams deciding which installed base gets priority for feature rollouts. SGF’s slate pointed to a pragmatic answer: ship cross‑gen when it keeps total addressable market high; claim Switch 2‑only when fidelity, AI, or CPU budgets make it worthwhile. [1][3][4] (https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2026/06/round-up-every-switch-1-and-2-announcement-from-summer-game-fests-weekend-showcases)

For Nintendo, the risk is software‑drought optics if a June 2026 Direct underdelivers. For third parties, the risk is leaving revenue on the table by going Switch 2‑only too early while 155.92 million Switch 1 owners still buy games; the weekend’s cadence suggests the industry will split the difference through 2027. [2][5] (https://www.gematsu.com/2026/05/switch-2-worldwide-sales-top-19-86-million-switch-tops-155-92-million)

Original analysis

Consensus says “Switch 2 needs wall‑to‑wall first‑party exclusives to take off.” Contrarian read: SGF 2026 hinted third parties can carry the middle of Nintendo’s 2026 calendar while Kyoto spaces out first‑party tentpoles. Capcom anchoring with Resident Evil: Code Veronica and Epic pushing Fortnite’s Runners season on Nintendo hardware together do more for platform momentum than a single Direct sizzle reel. [3][4] (https://www.gamespot.com/articles/resident-evil-code-veronica-remake-gets-first-reveal-at-summer-game-fest/)

Named‑stakeholder breakdown

Back‑of‑envelope calculation (attach‑rate math)

Historical analogue

  • In 2018, Fortnite’s Switch arrival filled calendar gaps between first‑party drops and normalized “always‑on” third‑party content on Nintendo; SGF 2026 echoes that moment with Runners bringing a modern extraction‑style loop and Code Veronica supplying a prestige horror headline. Doom (2017 Switch port) and Diablo III (2018 Switch release) steadied the eShop in 2018–2019; expect similar 2026–2027 chart stability with live‑service cadence plus one or two headline remakes. [1][4] (https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2026/06/round-up-every-switch-1-and-2-announcement-from-summer-game-fests-weekend-showcases)

Typology: Four pipelines now powering Nintendo’s 2026–2027 slate

What others are missing

The quiet power play is anti‑fragmentation across 2026–2027: publishers repeatedly labeled “Switch 1 and 2,” signaling they will treat the family as one monetizable audience for at least 18 months. That decision shapes production in concrete ways—teams build to a Switch 1 minimum spec for CPU/IO while Switch 2 lifts resolution, framerate, and AI density via higher clocks and memory headroom. This approach reduces QA risk in Nintendo Lotcheck and stabilizes revenue curves at the expense of jaw‑dropping Switch 2 exclusives in the short term. With 155.92M Switch and 19.86M Switch 2 in market, the trade is rational for live‑service titles and evergreen indies until late 2027. [1][2] (https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2026/06/round-up-every-switch-1-and-2-announcement-from-summer-game-fests-weekend-showcases)

What to watch next

  1. By September 30, 2026, Nintendo’s IR will show Switch 2 lifetime sell‑in at ≥25M and combined Switch family at ≥182M, reinforcing a long dual‑support window. [2] (https://www.gematsu.com/2026/05/switch-2-worldwide-sales-top-19-86-million-switch-tops-155-92-million)
  2. By Tokyo Game Show 2026 (September 2026), Capcom will publish Resident Evil: Code Veronica’s Switch 2 performance targets (resolution/framerate modes) alongside platform‑specific feature notes. [3] (https://www.gamespot.com/articles/resident-evil-code-veronica-remake-gets-first-reveal-at-summer-game-fest/)
  3. By December 31, 2026, at least 50% of the SGF‑listed Switch games in Nintendo Life’s roundup will have shipped on both Switch 1 and Switch 2, confirming publishers’ cross‑gen strategy. [1] (https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2026/06/round-up-every-switch-1-and-2-announcement-from-summer-game-fests-weekend-showcases)

My take

SGF 2026 did the de‑risking Nintendo needed: Capcom supplied a prestige remake, Epic refreshed the platform’s largest live‑service loop, and the indie conveyor belt stayed full across June showcases. I don’t need a June or September Direct stuffed with twenty first‑party megatons to stay bullish on Switch 2’s software curve into 2027. I need a steady mix of “runs everywhere” and “looks best here,” and the weekend set that up with Code Veronica, Runners, and a deep indie slate. If Nintendo drops one or two surprise exclusives into the fall Directs, Switch 2’s attach rate will climb without sacrificing the broader 175.78M‑device opportunity. [2] (https://www.gematsu.com/2026/05/switch-2-worldwide-sales-top-19-86-million-switch-tops-155-92-million)

Sources

  1. Round Up: Every Switch 1 & 2 Announcement From Summer Game Fest’s Weekend Showcases — Nintendo Life — The master list of Switch 1/2 announcements across SGF weekend. (https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2026/06/round-up-every-switch-1-and-2-announcement-from-summer-game-fests-weekend-showcases)
  2. Switch 2 worldwide sales top 19.86 million; Switch tops 155.92 million — Gematsu — Installed‑base numbers framing the cross‑gen business case as of March 31, 2026. (https://www.gematsu.com/2026/05/switch-2-worldwide-sales-top-19-86-million-switch-tops-155-92-million)
  3. Resident Evil: Code Veronica Remake Gets First Reveal at Summer Game Fest — GameSpot — Confirms Capcom’s SGF reveal and situates it within RE’s remake cadence. (https://www.gamespot.com/articles/resident-evil-code-veronica-remake-gets-first-reveal-at-summer-game-fest/)
  4. When does Fortnite Season 3 in Chapter 7 start? — GamesRadar — Verifies the Runners season timing in June 2026 and Epic’s in‑game communications. (https://www.gamesradar.com/games/fortnite/fortnite-season-3-chapter-7/)
  5. Everything announced at Summer Game Fest 2026 — TechRadar — Live blog corroborating the opener’s shape and Switch‑relevant beats across showcases. (https://www.techradar.com/news/live/summer-game-fest-2026-live)
  6. Every Xbox and PC game shown during Summer Game Fest 2026 — Windows Central — Cross‑checks reveal order (including Code Veronica) and the broader 2026 SGF context. (https://www.windowscentral.com/gaming/xbox/every-xbox-and-pc-game-shown-during-summer-game-fest-2026)

Destiny 2’s Peaceful Farewell Update | Analysis by Brian Moineau

TL;DR

  • Destiny 2’s last trailer tees up Monument of Triumph on June 9, 2026, with Ikora Rey’s “rest now, Guardian” sendoff as Bungie ends active development while keeping servers online for the Last City faithful. [1][2]
  • This is a freeze, not a funeral: Sony booked roughly $765–766 million of Bungie impairments for FY2025 (ended March 31, 2026), so halting Destiny 2’s update treadmill caps burn and preserves goodwill for a long‑tail “collection” product. [4][5]
  • The patch rewires the economy and access model—daily Bright Dust rotations, a single Destiny 2: The Collection SKU, and Sparrow Racing League’s return—signaling a playable museum that’s stable, light‑touch, and still monetizable. [2]

What the source said

Forbes reported on June 5, 2026 that Bungie released what is likely Destiny 2’s final trailer, pairing the June 9 Monument of Triumph update with imagery of the healed Traveler over the Last City and narration from Ikora Rey. The article lists reprised weapons and new armor sets, emphasizes Sparrow Racing League’s return as the “last new mode,” and notes lingering lore threads like “bind the Nine” left unresolved. It captures a tone of elegy and finality while acknowledging players’ hope for a hypothetical Destiny 3 that isn’t greenlit in 2026. [1]

Why it matters

  • Bungie is shifting from “forever updates” to preservation: on May 21, 2026, the studio said Monument of Triumph on June 9, 2026 marks the end of active development for Destiny 2, with servers staying online—echoing Destiny 1’s museum state after Age of Triumph in 2017. That reframes Destiny 2 as an evergreen product, not a growth treadmill. [2][1]
  • The portfolio math is visible in Sony’s filings: across FY2025, Sony recorded about $765–766 million in impairment losses tied to Bungie, including a $204 million hit disclosed in Q2 FY2025. In that light, ending Destiny 2’s live ops looks like risk containment while Bungie incubates new games such as Marathon. [4][5]

Original analysis

Consensus says: “Ending updates for Destiny 2 is a tragedy driven by corporate missteps.” Contrarian read: freezing Destiny 2 now is the least‑bad option that preserves the IP’s cultural equity and stops a cost spiral as engagement slid on PC; in March 2026, Steam concurrency hit all‑time lows per third‑party trackers, a trend that contextualizes Sony’s impairments and Bungie’s pivot. [7][5]

Named‑stakeholder breakdown

  • Bungie: Converts Destiny 2 into a curated museum with a lean maintenance team while staking the studio’s future on “next games.” The blog’s concrete changes—daily Bright Dust rotations, Destiny 2: The Collection, and permanent markdowns—optimize for a low‑friction, long‑tail economy. [2]
  • Sony Interactive Entertainment: Halting live updates caps opex and narrows reputational damage while SIE absorbs ~$765 million of write‑downs, testing whether Marathon or other bets can justify the $3.6 billion Bungie acquisition announced in 2022. [5][4]
  • Competitors (Warframe/Digital Extremes; Ubisoft’s The Division 2): They can court disaffected Guardians, but they also receive a warning about expensive content treadmills; Warframe’s creative director publicly called Destiny 2’s end “unthinkable,” underscoring the shock inside the live‑service cohort. [3]

2×2 framework: How live‑services “end”

  • High trust, Low burn: Curate and freeze (Destiny 2: Monument of Triumph in 2026).
  • High trust, High burn: Reinvent live (FFXIV: A Realm Reborn–style reboot; rare and risky).
  • Low trust, Low burn: Silent maintenance (servers on, minimal comms; reputational rot).
  • Low trust, High burn: Grind on with weak cadence (players churn; money vanishes).

Historical analogue (2017): Destiny 1’s Age of Triumph

  • In March 2017, Bungie closed Destiny 1’s update era with Age of Triumph—a celebration patch with revived raids and a pledge to keep servers on—then shifted momentum to Destiny 2’s September 2017 launch. Monument of Triumph echoes that playbook in 2026, but without a sequel waiting; Bungie frames this as the studio’s “new beginning,” not Destiny’s. Expect the museum to retain a core while attention migrates to whatever Bungie ships next. [1][2]

Back‑of‑envelope calculation (illustrative, not a forecast)

  • Assume a live‑ops Destiny 2 team of 300 developers at a loaded cost of $180,000/year each (salary, benefits, tools) = ~$54,000,000/year.
  • If the freeze reduces to a 60‑person maintenance crew at the same loaded rate = ~$10,800,000/year.
  • Implied opex relief ≈ $43,200,000/year, before savings on contractor art pipelines, external QA, and seasonal marketing; even at ±25%, the order of magnitude explains a freeze after ~$765–766 million in impairments. [5]
  • On revenue, a maintenance‑state Eververse plus a “Collection” bundle can still generate mid‑single‑digit millions annually; the new daily Bright Dust rotations and broader ornament access point to slow‑drip, goodwill‑first monetization. [2]

Why this isn’t just a content funeral

  • The Bungie post reads like product management, not an epitaph: a refreshed Director, Pantheon 2.0, set bonuses across raids/dungeons, Distortions on destinations, and Sparrow Racing League as a permanent pillar, all free for every platform on June 9, 2026. That ships years of asks at once so the final “frozen” state feels generous. [2]
  • PC and console press also confirm an explicit in‑game goodbye rather than a fade‑out—“yes, there’s story; yes, we get to say goodbye”—which gives The Final Shape era emotional closure and tempers petitions for a last‑minute Destiny 3. [6][1]

What others are missing

The endgame is economic design, not lore closure: Bungie reworked the reward economy and access model to minimize weekly FOMO and support tickets—daily Bright Dust rotations, Bright Engram focusing, tiered armor/weapon parity across legacy raids/dungeons, and a single Destiny 2: The Collection SKU with permanent markdowns across Steam, PlayStation, and Xbox. That cocktail compresses balance work into clear tiers, broadens cosmetic access without constant store overhauls, and yields a preservation‑first monetization scheme that can run for years with low staffing and low controversy. [2]

What to watch next

  1. By September 30, 2026, after the “Immortal” title deadline, Destiny 2’s Steam 7‑day average concurrency will be ≥20% below its June 9–16, 2026 7‑day average, and October 2026’s day‑to‑day standard deviation will be lower than any Episode month in 2024–2025 (per SteamCharts or similar trackers). [2]
  2. By December 31, 2026, Sony IR materials will report no new Bungie‑specific impairment charge ≥$50 million beyond the ~$765–766 million recorded for FY2025; any additional write‑down above that threshold would falsify this. [4][5]
  3. By March 31, 2027, Destiny 2: The Collection will either be priced at $29.99 USD MSRP or less on at least two storefronts (Steam, PSN, Xbox), or will include all remaining expansion SKUs at no extra charge inside the bundle. [2]

My take

If you love Destiny, log in on June 9, 2026 and savor Monument of Triumph, because Bungie is closing a 2017–2026 era with uncommon grace. The studio is making the only defensible move after a brutal FY2025: lock an iconic game in a generous, fan‑friendly state and move on from an opex‑heavy treadmill that no longer cleared the bar. Sony’s ~$765 million impairments forced a sober reset; the museum model protects Destiny’s cultural equity while Bungie builds something that actually merits a fresh runway. [2][5]

Sources

  1. Destiny 2’s Last Trailer Ever Is Heartbreaking — Forbes (https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2026/06/05/destiny-2s-last-trailer-ever-is-heartbreaking/) — Frames the June 9, 2026 trailer, Ikora’s narration, and Sparrow Racing’s return.
  2. Destiny 2: Every End is a New Beginning — Bungie.net (https://www.bungie.net/7/en/News/Article/d2_may_21_2026) — Confirms June 9, 2026 end of active development and details economy changes and The Collection.
  3. Destiny 2 Ending New Content Is “Unthinkable,” Warframe Dev Says — GameSpot (https://www.gamespot.com/articles/destiny-2-ending-new-content-is-unthinkable-warframe-dev-says/) — Provides a peer studio’s on‑record reaction.
  4. FY2025 Q2 Earnings Announcement Q&A — Sony IR (https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/25q2_qa.pdf) — Discloses a $204 million impairment tied to Bungie in Q2 FY2025 and related commentary.
  5. Sony records a $766 million impairment loss against Bungie for the 2025 financial year — PC Gamer (https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/sony-records-a-usd766-million-impairment-loss-against-bungie-for-the-2025-financial-year-a-1-2-punch-of-destiny-2-and-marathon-failing-to-meet-its-expectations/) — Aggregates the ~$765–766 million FY2025 impairment total and Marathon context.
  6. Destiny 2 lead says the final update won’t just fade out — GamesRadar (https://www.gamesradar.com/games/destiny/destiny-2-lead-says-the-final-update-wont-just-fade-out-yes-theres-story-yes-we-get-to-say-goodbye/) — Confirms the “say goodbye” narrative inside Monument of Triumph.
  7. Destiny 2 player counts drop to lowest point ever on Steam — TweakTown (https://www.tweaktown.com/news/110476/destiny-2-player-counts-drop-to-lowest-point-ever-on-steam/index.html) — Documents March 2026 Steam lows to illustrate engagement decline.




Related update: We recently published an article that expands on this topic: read the latest post.

When The Last of Us Multiplayer Died | Analysis by Brian Moineau

When a Beloved Franchise Almost Went Live: The Last of Us Multiplayer's Rise and Fall

The Last of Us Multiplayer quietly became one of gaming’s most bittersweet “what if” stories. Fans remember Factions — the tense, soulful multiplayer mode from the 2013 original — and many hoped Naughty Dog would return to that magic. The Last of Us Multiplayer, a standalone live-service project often called Factions or The Last of Us Online, grew into an ambitious effort over several years, only to be dramatically scaled back and reportedly cancelled after being “about 80%” complete. (darkhorizons.com)

Why this mattered

For context, Naughty Dog built its reputation on cinematic, character-driven single-player games. Shifting a studio like that into the world of AAA live service multiplayer is not just a technical challenge — it’s a cultural and business pivot. The Last of Us multiplayer started as an extension of The Last of Us Part II’s ideas, evolved into a full project, and attracted big internal investment and high expectations. Yet, in a development landscape increasingly dominated by persistent online games with huge upkeep costs, the studio faced a trade-off: finish and support a sprawling live service, or refocus on the narrative experiences that define Naughty Dog. (dexerto.com)

  • It reportedly spent years in development — some sources say around seven years — and reached a late stage before being shut down or heavily reassessed. (gamesradar.com)
  • Internal voices and external partners were involved: there were reports of consultations and reviews, including input from other studios. (gamesradar.com)

What “80% done” actually means

Saying a game was “80% done” can be emotionally charged and technically misleading. Developers and studios measure progress differently. Often the visible systems, art, and core loops make up a large portion of early progress, while the remaining 20% can include the hardest parts: balancing, server infrastructure, anti-cheat systems, live ops tooling, monetization frameworks, and long-term support planning.

In other words, 80% might mean the prototype and many fundamentals existed — but not that the game was ready to ship or sustain a live community at scale. Reported quotes from former leads emphasize how close the project felt internally, yet also how daunting the last stretch was. (darkhorizons.com)

The industry tug-of-war

Transitioning from single-player excellence to live service success is difficult for any studio. There are several pressures that informed Naughty Dog’s decision-making:

  • Live services require continuous content updates, community management, and significant post-launch support teams.
  • AAA live games need long-term monetization strategies and technical backbones for servers, matchmaking, and anti-cheat.
  • Prioritizing one major live project can siphon talent and resources away from cinematic single-player titles, which often define a studio’s brand and revenue potential.

Because of these factors, Naughty Dog reportedly chose to reallocate resources toward other single-player projects, like the studio’s secretive Intergalactic: The Heretic Prophet, rather than commit to the long-term demands of an online Last of Us. That choice underscores a broader industry reality: not every beloved IP benefits from becoming a live service. (gamesradar.com)

What fans lost — and what they still have

Fans lost more than a potential new game; they lost a vision of how The Last of Us could translate into persistent, emergent multiplayer storytelling. Many players long for a refined, narrative-aware PvP experience that retains the franchise’s emotional weight.

However, there are silver linings:

  • The original Factions remains a touchstone and a design reference for team-based tension. Re-releases and memories keep its spirit alive.
  • Knowledge and prototypes from the canceled or paused project may inform future Naughty Dog work or inspire smaller-scale multiplayer experiments from former team members. (gamerant.com)

A closer look at the timeline

To clear confusion, here’s a concise timeline of the publicly reported events:

  • Development reportedly began around 2020, initially tied to The Last of Us Part II’s ecosystem. (forbes.com)
  • Over subsequent years, the project expanded into a standalone live-service title with a significant team.
  • Around late 2023 and into 2024, reports suggested the game was being reassessed or scaled back amid internal reviews and company priorities. (gamedeveloper.com)
  • Recently, statements from developers and coverage cited the project being “about 80%” complete at its cancellation or pause, triggering fresh debate about what “complete” means in practice. (darkhorizons.com)

Final thoughts

My take: the story of The Last of Us Multiplayer is a useful reminder that big ideas and beloved IPs don’t automatically equal sustainable live-service games. Quality, long-term support, and alignment with a studio’s identity matter just as much as ambition. While it’s heartbreaking to see a project with apparent momentum shelved, the choice to prioritize what a studio does best — especially when that’s telling powerful single-player stories — can be the braver, more honest path.

That said, the appetite for a well-made, emotionally resonant multiplayer Last of Us remains. If the right team, scope, and business model emerge — perhaps from former Naughty Dog talent or a smaller, more focused studio — fans may still get something that honors Factions without promising the impossible.

What to watch next

  • Anecdotes from former team members and interviews with studio leads will be telling about how much of the canceled work survives internally.
  • Any projects launched by ex-Naughty Dog devs could be fertile ground for The Last of Us-style multiplayer design.
  • Industry shifts in how publishers handle live services (shorter live ops, hybrid monetization, or tighter scopes) may open the door for revisiting similar projects with less risk.

Sources




Related update: We recently published an article that expands on this topic: read the latest post.


Related update: We recently published an article that expands on this topic: read the latest post.